What changes as a result of Georgian Dream Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s visit to China? Giorgi Kartvelishvili, a specialist on contemporary China, says that at this stage it is unclear how deeply trade and economic relations with China will actually develop, although “the potential exists.”
“The real risk lies elsewhere. If Georgia fails to modernize its infrastructure in a way that truly allows the transit of such large volumes of cargo, only then could the Zangezur corridor replace us.
At this point, we are facing stagnation. We do not have the Anaklia port, and our railway is not modernized,” says Giorgi Kartvelishvili. Batumelebi interviewed him.
Mr. Kartvelishvili, from your perspective, what made Irakli Kobakhidze’s visit to China distinctive? What is fundamentally changing?
The highest-level meeting was with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Relations with China have been deepening over the past few years, and this visit represents another step in that direction.
China is hosting a major international import expo, with companies represented from all over the world and from many different countries. The purpose is clearly to stimulate trade with China and establish new connections. Around 40 Georgian companies are participating, which represents one aspect of this visit.
In addition, representatives of several ministries are part of the delegation, as well as the President of the National Bank. They plan to sign memorandums of cooperation. Several Chinese state institutions also intend to sign memorandums. The details will likely be made public by the parties themselves.
A strategic partnership agreement with China has existed since 2023, yet we have not seen major economic projects or Chinese investments.
This is a formal document that does not contain specific binding obligations. It is more of a framework outlining future cooperation.
For example, Chinese investment has still not materialized in the Anaklia port.
Yes. One of China’s very large state-owned companies won the tender, but afterward the process effectively stalled. No formal contract has been signed.
Since then, the Ministry of Economy has made several statements saying that formal procedures are ongoing, that details are being clarified, and that preliminary work is underway in Anaklia. After the Belgian company was hired, the investor was supposed to become involved. However, a final contract has not yet been concluded.
Georgian Dream’s propagandists and troll networks often claim that Europe is abandoning Georgia and that relations with China will be deepened instead.
In my view, regardless of whether relations with Europe deteriorate or improve, deepening ties with China is inevitable.
China will become even more active in our region in the future. This is the trajectory China is following globally. China has its own interests, and its activity is increasing worldwide. It is expected that this activity will also grow in Georgia.
If Georgia becomes a kind of dead end and loses its geopolitical importance, for example through the activation of the so-called Trump Corridor and isolation from the West, will China’s interest in Georgia still grow?
That depends on many factors, including the political elite. The situation here changes very quickly. One moment we are an EU candidate country, the next moment the EU is portrayed as an enemy. It is impossible to predict anything definitively, but I believe China’s interest in this region is growing.
From China’s perspective, the so-called Zangezur corridor, the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, and Anaklia are essentially the same route. Once cargo reaches Baku, it is only a few hundred kilometers to Zangezur, to Kars, or to Anaklia. Therefore, rather than replacing one another, these routes could actually complement each other by increasing the overall capacity of the same corridor.
I am familiar with the argument that if this corridor becomes operational it will negatively affect Georgia, but in my opinion the real risk lies elsewhere. If Georgia fails to modernize its infrastructure to the extent that it truly cannot handle such large volumes of cargo, only then could Zangezur replace us.
At this point, we are experiencing stagnation. We do not have the Anaklia port, our railway is not modernized, and that is the main problem. The question is why we are unable to utilize this opportunity more quickly.
Are there calculations on whether Georgian Dream’s political stability could rely on strengthening economic cooperation with China amid confrontation with the West? At present, trade relations with China are not very active.
The potential certainly exists in theory, but I believe Georgia remains a point of intersection rather than a point of substitution.
That is precisely why this region interests both sides. Georgia needs to increase domestic production that can be exported and sold, but we are lagging significantly in this regard.
In reality, the same thing is happening with China as happened with the West before political relations deteriorated. A free trade agreement was signed, but it did not lead to a significant increase in Georgian exports to European countries. Incidentally, Georgia was the first country to sign free trade agreements with both China and the European Union. That is one of our peculiar distinctions.